This poster offers the iPRES community an interim update on work at The National Archives (UK) to develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network which describes and explains the complexity of the digital preservation risk environment. The intention of this project is to evaluate the applicability of a Bayesian statistical approach to support a risk-based approach to digital preservation. This would complement our existing standards-based approaches and support evidence led decision making by the archive. This poster focuses on the technical work undertaken so far during the project, highlighting the potential benefits of the approach and identifying areas for further investigation.