Title (deu)
Affective forecasting
Vorhersagen und Erleben spezifischer Emotionen am Beispiel von Körperschmuck
Parallel title (eng)
Affective Forecasting : prediction of future emotions and experienced emotions caused by piercing
Author
Verena Ciesciutti
Advisor
Erik Hölzl
Assessor
Erik Hölzl
Abstract (deu)
In der Literatur wird unter Affective Forecasting das Vorhersagen von emotionalen Reaktionen auf zukünftige Ereignisse verstanden (Gilbert & Wilson, 2005). Tagtäglich werden solche Vorhersagen gemacht. Dabei kann es zu Fehlern kommen. Speziell das Überschätzen der Intensität (Buehler & McFarland, 2001) sowie der Dauer (Gilbert,Wilson, Pinel, Wheatly, Blumberg, 1998) von zukünftigen Emotionen wird häufig untersucht. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob sich Vorhersagen vom tatsächlichen Erleben produktbezogener Emotionen, speziell am Beispiel von Körperschmuck, voneinander unterscheiden. Anhand von zwei Studien wurde festgestellt,
dass die tatsächlich empfundenen Emotionen über die Zeit hinweg nachlassen. In Studie 1 konnte ein signifikanter Unterschied zwischen Vorhersage und tatsächlichen Empfinden
festgestellt werden. Die Ergebnisse in Studie 2 konnten hingegen keine signifikanten Unterschiede zwischen Vorhersage und tatsächlich zu dem vorhergesagten Zeitpunkt empfundenen Emotionen nachweisen.
Abstract (eng)
Affective Forecasting is the prediction of emotional reactions for future events. Such predictions can lead to mistakes because the intensity and the duration of future emotions cannot be predicted without difficulties. These two qualities of emotions are often overestimated. The main question in the current work is if predictions about emotions - concerning intensity and duration - caused by piercing are different from the actual
emotions which occur after the act of a piercing. Two studies were conducted. In study 1, 33 participants completed a standardised questionnaire about actual emotions right after
having been pierced. About half of the participants were also asked to give a prediction of their emotions after four weeks. Four weeks later the same people were contacted by email
and asked to rate their present actual emotions. The results of the analyses show that experienced emotions declined over time. Predictions were too optimistic; i.e. participants did not forsee the extent to wich their emotions would decline. In study 2 778 people participated in an online questionnaire. 666 responses were usable. The results show similar to study 1 that the intensity of emotions decreased over time. However no
significant difference between the prediction of future emotions and experienced emotions at the predicted time could be found in this cross-section design.
Keywords (eng)
affective forecastingimpact biasdurability biasintensity bias
Keywords (deu)
Affective ForecastingAffektvorhersagenimpact biasdurability biasintensity bias
Subject (deu)
Subject (deu)
Type (deu)
Persistent identifier
Extent (deu)
101, [56] S.
Number of pages
159
Association (deu)
Title (deu)
Affective forecasting
Vorhersagen und Erleben spezifischer Emotionen am Beispiel von Körperschmuck
Parallel title (eng)
Affective Forecasting : prediction of future emotions and experienced emotions caused by piercing
Author
Verena Ciesciutti
Abstract (deu)
In der Literatur wird unter Affective Forecasting das Vorhersagen von emotionalen Reaktionen auf zukünftige Ereignisse verstanden (Gilbert & Wilson, 2005). Tagtäglich werden solche Vorhersagen gemacht. Dabei kann es zu Fehlern kommen. Speziell das Überschätzen der Intensität (Buehler & McFarland, 2001) sowie der Dauer (Gilbert,Wilson, Pinel, Wheatly, Blumberg, 1998) von zukünftigen Emotionen wird häufig untersucht. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird der Frage nachgegangen, ob sich Vorhersagen vom tatsächlichen Erleben produktbezogener Emotionen, speziell am Beispiel von Körperschmuck, voneinander unterscheiden. Anhand von zwei Studien wurde festgestellt,
dass die tatsächlich empfundenen Emotionen über die Zeit hinweg nachlassen. In Studie 1 konnte ein signifikanter Unterschied zwischen Vorhersage und tatsächlichen Empfinden
festgestellt werden. Die Ergebnisse in Studie 2 konnten hingegen keine signifikanten Unterschiede zwischen Vorhersage und tatsächlich zu dem vorhergesagten Zeitpunkt empfundenen Emotionen nachweisen.
Abstract (eng)
Affective Forecasting is the prediction of emotional reactions for future events. Such predictions can lead to mistakes because the intensity and the duration of future emotions cannot be predicted without difficulties. These two qualities of emotions are often overestimated. The main question in the current work is if predictions about emotions - concerning intensity and duration - caused by piercing are different from the actual
emotions which occur after the act of a piercing. Two studies were conducted. In study 1, 33 participants completed a standardised questionnaire about actual emotions right after
having been pierced. About half of the participants were also asked to give a prediction of their emotions after four weeks. Four weeks later the same people were contacted by email
and asked to rate their present actual emotions. The results of the analyses show that experienced emotions declined over time. Predictions were too optimistic; i.e. participants did not forsee the extent to wich their emotions would decline. In study 2 778 people participated in an online questionnaire. 666 responses were usable. The results show similar to study 1 that the intensity of emotions decreased over time. However no
significant difference between the prediction of future emotions and experienced emotions at the predicted time could be found in this cross-section design.
Keywords (eng)
affective forecastingimpact biasdurability biasintensity bias
Keywords (deu)
Affective ForecastingAffektvorhersagenimpact biasdurability biasintensity bias
Subject (deu)
Subject (deu)
Type (deu)
Persistent identifier
Number of pages
159
Association (deu)
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