Abstract (eng)
Human-induced climate change and destruction of natural habitats are the two main threats to biodiversity worldwide. Animals can use weather conditions as environmental cues for optimal breeding conditions but climate change can cause severe phenological mismatches. Specifically migratory species that have a shorter time period for their settlement decision than residents, or species that breed in heavily transformed habitats – such as urbanised areas that can be linked to mismatches between perceived quality and realised fitness – might be sensitive to such changes. We analysed arrival and egg-laying dates of Eurasian kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) in Vienna (415 km2), Austria, gathered by academic and citizen scientists from 2010-2018. To identify critical time windows in which weather variables affect egg-laying dates, we used a sliding window approach. We considered degree of urbanisation, observer category and year as additional co-variates. Furthermore, we assessed the relationship between arrival date and egg-laying (i.e., the length of the time gap in between). Egg-laying dates of urban Eurasian kestrels correlated significantly with precipitation prior to arrival until three weeks before egg-laying. We found that recorded arrival dates were influenced by observer category and year but not by urbanisation. Citizen scientists reported arrival and egg-laying dates earlier than academic scientists, while precipitation, daily maximum temperature and urbanisation were associated with later egg-laying dates. The time gap between arrival and egg-laying was shorter in breeding pairs that arrived later at their nest sites. We conclude that in our case degree of urbanisation, observer category and precipitation are the most important factors to understand breeding phenology, although the inter-annual variation was high. Temperature featured significantly in the models but naturally increased over the course of the breeding period and thus is confound with a seasonal effect. Our results indicate a strategy to mitigate later arrival by relatively earlier egg-laying through reducing the courtship period. This suggests a behavioural adaption to take advantage of potentially favourable conditions at the wintering grounds while avoiding egg-laying delay and the associated declines in breeding productivity with later onset of breeding known also from previous studies in our population.