Title (eng)
The future of EU carbon pricing: should non-ETS sectors be included into the EU ETS
Author
Alexander Krenek
Advisor
Werner Neudeck
Assessor
Werner Neudeck
Abstract (deu)
Die EU Kommission versucht mit ihrem “European Green Deal” ambitioniertere 2030/2050 Emissionsziele zu erreichen. Da viele Mitgliedsstaaten aber Probleme haben die bereits bestehenden Ziele zu erreichen schlägt die Kommission unter anderem vor zu prüfen ob es von Vorteil wäre jene Sektoren die bisher nicht im EU Emissionshandel (EHS) erfasst waren, hauptsächlich Transport, Wärme und Landwirtschaft, zu integrieren. Befürworter dieser Reform argumentieren, dass somit kosteneffizient Emissionen eingespart würden. Diese Abhandlung analysiert mittels Rekalibrierung eines einfachen Optimierungsproblems, welches von Richard Tol (2008) definiert worden ist, abzuschätzen welchen Effekt so eine Reform auf den Zertifikatspreis innerhalb des EHS haben würde um somit zur aktuellen Diskussion beitragen und Politikempfehlungen abgeben zu können.
Abstract (eng)
The new von der Leyen commission in its European Green Deal (European Commission 2019) has committed itself to push for even more ambitious 2030/2050 carbon reduction targets. Many EU countries, however, already encounter great difficulties reaching their respective existing national targets for the non-ETS sectors, i.e. transport, heating and agriculture (European Environment Agency (EEA) 2018). Therefore, one policy proposal in the European Green Deal is to include those non-ETS sectors into the ETS. Such a reform, proponents argue, would cap the overall amount of carbon emissions in a cost-efficient way by creating a single price for carbon inside the EU. This paper tries to predict the effect such a reform would have on the price of carbon. Ultimately, this effect will depend on a political compromise that would have to determine the new ETS emissions cap as well as the distribution of emission allowances between the member states. In the worst-case scenario, the cap would be set too high and would thus undo the progress that was made over the last decade fixing the existing ETS. In the best-case scenario, the cap would be set strictly in accordance with the (current or more ambitious) 2030/2050 targets, which would result in a significant rise of the ETS allowance price by bringing in competition households and industry. A credible carbon leakage protection for EU industry would therefore be the minimum pre-requisite for the inclusion of non-ETS sectors.
Keywords (eng)
carbon pricingemission tradingemission trading systemEU ETSETS sectorsnon-ETS sectorsclimate change
Keywords (deu)
UmweltsteuerUmweltsteuernEU EmissionshandelEmissionshandelParis ZieleKlimawandel
Subject (deu)
Type (deu)
Persistent identifier
Extent (deu)
v, 39 Seiten : Diagramme
Number of pages
44
Study plan
Universitätslehrgang für Internationale Studien (M.A.I.S.-Lg)
[UA]
[992]
[940]
Association (deu)
Title (eng)
The future of EU carbon pricing: should non-ETS sectors be included into the EU ETS
Author
Alexander Krenek
Abstract (deu)
Die EU Kommission versucht mit ihrem “European Green Deal” ambitioniertere 2030/2050 Emissionsziele zu erreichen. Da viele Mitgliedsstaaten aber Probleme haben die bereits bestehenden Ziele zu erreichen schlägt die Kommission unter anderem vor zu prüfen ob es von Vorteil wäre jene Sektoren die bisher nicht im EU Emissionshandel (EHS) erfasst waren, hauptsächlich Transport, Wärme und Landwirtschaft, zu integrieren. Befürworter dieser Reform argumentieren, dass somit kosteneffizient Emissionen eingespart würden. Diese Abhandlung analysiert mittels Rekalibrierung eines einfachen Optimierungsproblems, welches von Richard Tol (2008) definiert worden ist, abzuschätzen welchen Effekt so eine Reform auf den Zertifikatspreis innerhalb des EHS haben würde um somit zur aktuellen Diskussion beitragen und Politikempfehlungen abgeben zu können.
Abstract (eng)
The new von der Leyen commission in its European Green Deal (European Commission 2019) has committed itself to push for even more ambitious 2030/2050 carbon reduction targets. Many EU countries, however, already encounter great difficulties reaching their respective existing national targets for the non-ETS sectors, i.e. transport, heating and agriculture (European Environment Agency (EEA) 2018). Therefore, one policy proposal in the European Green Deal is to include those non-ETS sectors into the ETS. Such a reform, proponents argue, would cap the overall amount of carbon emissions in a cost-efficient way by creating a single price for carbon inside the EU. This paper tries to predict the effect such a reform would have on the price of carbon. Ultimately, this effect will depend on a political compromise that would have to determine the new ETS emissions cap as well as the distribution of emission allowances between the member states. In the worst-case scenario, the cap would be set too high and would thus undo the progress that was made over the last decade fixing the existing ETS. In the best-case scenario, the cap would be set strictly in accordance with the (current or more ambitious) 2030/2050 targets, which would result in a significant rise of the ETS allowance price by bringing in competition households and industry. A credible carbon leakage protection for EU industry would therefore be the minimum pre-requisite for the inclusion of non-ETS sectors.
Keywords (eng)
carbon pricingemission tradingemission trading systemEU ETSETS sectorsnon-ETS sectorsclimate change
Keywords (deu)
UmweltsteuerUmweltsteuernEU EmissionshandelEmissionshandelParis ZieleKlimawandel
Subject (deu)
Type (deu)
Persistent identifier
Number of pages
44
Association (deu)
License
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