Abstract (eng)
How do riparian states manage water conflicts? Why countries in some river basins have been able to effectively manage the conflict whilst the riparians of the Blue Nile Basin could not do so? These are the main questions this research dealt with.
Water conflict has attracted the attention of numerous scholars over the past few decades. However, the vast majority of them have, very disproportionately and regrettably, focused on the possibility of water war or cooperation among the riparians of the transboundary rivers. This conceptualisation of water conflict resulting in scant exploration of low intensity water conflict. Even so, the theoretical frameworks employed appear to be narrow and inadequate to explain pertinent issues pertaining to water interactions among the riparians of the transboundary rivers and the dynamics of hydro politics.
By drawing on existing scholarly works and applying a ‘richer view of law and politics’, this research seeks to examine the theories, concepts, and strategies on the management of conflicts arising from the use of transboundary water resources in general and water conflicts in the Blue Nile Basin in particular. To put the theoretical discussions into context and provide an illustrative case study, the (intractable) water conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt is critically analysed.
Accordingly, this research argues that effective management of water conflicts depend, inter alia, on the power asymmetry among the Riparian States, the existence of and the extent to which the emerging water use norms are entrenched into the legal framework and state practices, the relative strength of and the mandate bestowed upon institutions regulating the Basin, and the level of convergence (divergence) of state identities and interests of the Riparian States. More particularly, within the Blue Nile Basin, Egypt has been able to establish and maintain an unstable hydro-hegemony in the Blue Nile Basin. To this end, it used colonial treaties, informal institutions, the discourse of ‘historic rights’ and securitisation of the river. In recent years, however, the upper riparian countries (mainly Ethiopia) have started challenging the Egyptian hegemony by using various counterhegemonic strategies, mainly through the combination of legal and political mechanisms. These counterhegemonic moves especially following the construction of the GERD has brought the two riparians, i.e., Egypt and Ethiopia, at a loggerhead.
Finally, it asserts that the management of conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt has become very complex in nature and intractable to resolve owing to the competing norms, incompatible state identity, and securitisation of the Nile, coupled with weak institutions with limited conflict management roles such as the NBI and AU and ineffective conflict management efforts, as evidenced in the protracted negotiation process and the failed US-brokered mediation. It is, therefore, imperative that an ongoing or future endeavours to manage the Ethiopia-Egypt water conflict should take the aforementioned necessary, albeit not sufficient, conditions into account; to leash the dogs of war!
Keywords: conflict management, securitisation, norms, identity, mediation, water conflicts, hydrohegemony, transboundary water resources