Abstract (eng)
This dissertation addresses the importance of understanding future population dynamics for effective resource allocation and sustainable planning. While numerous organizations project future populations, the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, Univ. Vienna) stands out by incorporating heterogeneity based on educational levels, alongside age and sex, and incorporating substantive assumptions in addition to statistical models. Recognizing that the future population of lower and middle-income countries (LMIC) depends heavily on fertility behavior, this study looks into reproductive intentions and behaviors across diverse contexts and regions in LMIC, focusing on the educational levels of women. The dissertation investigates the diffusion of fertility preferences and behaviors, the impact of urbanization on fertility behavior, and gender preferences among women of various educational backgrounds in LMICs using comprehensive demographic and health surveys in a large number of countries. In addition, the study also investigates the way to incorporate urbanization and diffusion while projecting fertility in a multidimensional population projection model. Three key findings emerge from the studies are: 1) Urbanization, in addition to individual education, plays a critical role in reducing fertility in LMIC; 2) Fertility intentions and behaviors in Africa are shaped not only by an individual's education but also by the average educational levels of neighbors and peers in close proximity, due to a diffusion effect; 3) In the case of Nepal, the education levels of neighbors and peers in close proximity strongly influence son preferences. These findings are crucial for demographic projections, emphasizing the need to consider diverse sources of heterogeneity affecting fertility in LMIC. The study points at the importance of including urbanization and diffusion effects in future fertility projections and indicates a way of to do this, providing valuable insights for more accurate projections and informed policy decisions.